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Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning.

Tomislav Pavlović¹, Flavio Azevedo², Koustav De³

¹Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb, Croatia.

|August 22, 2022

Summary

Moral identity and self-control strongly predict adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures. Understanding these psychological factors is key for effective public health interventions during pandemics.

Keywords:

COVID-19 hygiene policy support public health measures social distancing

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Area of Science:

Social Psychology
Behavioral Science
Public Health

Background:

COVID-19 emerged as a global health crisis in 2020.
Adherence to preventive measures varied significantly despite public health recommendations.
Understanding determinants of pandemic response is crucial for future interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate psychological and socio-demographic predictors of attitudinal and behavioral responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
To assess the predictive efficacy of various psychological constructs on pandemic-related behaviors.
To identify factors influencing adherence to public health guidelines.

Main Methods:

Machine learning analysis of multinational survey data (N=51,404).
Utilized data from the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19.
Examined constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, alongside socio-demographics.

Main Results:

Internalized moral identity was the most consistent predictor of adherence to preventive measures.
Other predictors included morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, and collective narcissism.
Endorsement of conspiracy theories showed an inverse relationship with adherence.

Conclusions:

Morality-related factors and individual psychological traits significantly influence adherence to public health recommendations.
Contextual factors like pandemic stage and cultural region moderate predictive relationships.
Findings highlight the importance of psychological and contextual elements in pandemic response strategies.