An extended wavelet approach of the money-output link in the United States

The paper examines the link between money and output in the U.S. by using wavelet analysis. The time span covers the period from 1960Q1 to 2021Q1. The main results evidence that money positively leads real output from the late 1960s to 1982, at medium frequency, with the interest rate playing an important role. In contrast, we reveal that real output negatively leads money, at the same medium frequency, but from the late 1990s to 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic generates significant co-movements in the short and medium frequencies, over the period from 2020 to 2021, with output negatively leading money. We underline that Federal Reserve monetary policy operating procedures play an essential role in explaining these findings. The results support using the federal funds rate operating procedure as countercyclical monetary policy measures and implementing unconventional monetary policy tools in times of the effective lower bound. Finally, no relationship between money and output is observed in the long term, while the short term (i.e. high frequency) reveals rather chaotic co-movements. The results remain robust to alternative wavelet tools, higher-frequency datasets, and a Hodrick-Prescott filtered quarterly sample.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00181-022-02294-6.