Overdose, opioid treatment admissions and prescription opioid pain reliever relationships: United States, 2010-2019

"As part of the U.S. government's urgent response to the epidemic of overdose deaths (1)" the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued the "CDC Guideline for Prescribing Opioids for Chronic Pain-United States, 2016 (2)" (guideline) followed by the "CDC Clinical Practice Guideline for Prescribing Opioids-United States, 2022 (3) (guideline update). " The guideline and guideline update cite a direct correlation between prescription opioids sales (POS) and opioid treatment admissions (OTA) and prescription opioid deaths (POD), which was based on data from 1999 to 2010. This paper updates those relationships and includes the correlations between prescription opioid sales (POS) and any opioid deaths (AOD) and total overdose deaths (TOD) from 2010 to 2019.

Linear regression models were fit to each response separately. Opioid sales (measured as MME (morphine milligram equivalent) per capita) was the independent variable. Total overdose deaths (TOD), any opioid overdose deaths (AOD), prescription opioid overdose deaths (POD) and opioid treatment admissions (OTA) were the dependent, response variables. The models were assessed using three criteria: the statistical significance of the model (Overall P-Value), the quality of the fit (R ²), and the sign of the slope coefficient (positive or negative).

The analyses revealed that the direct correlations (i.e., significant, positive slopes) reported by the CDC based on data from 1999 to 2010 no longer exist. Based on data from 2010 to 2019, the relationships either have reversed (i.e., significant, negative slopes) or are non-existent (i.e., no significant model).

The guideline, guideline update, CDC's public, medical profession, and intergovernmental communications should be corrected/updated to state no direct correlation has existed between POS to OTA, POD, AOD, and TOD since 2010. Individualized patient care and public health policy should be amended accordingly.