Projection of mortality from cerebrovascular disease, 1985 through 2000 A.D., in Japan

Trends of mortality from cerebrovascular disease from 1985 to 2000 were projected by a semi-logarithmic linear regression analysis based on the deaths and population by sex and age from 1973 to 1982. Crude death rates from cerebrovascular disease and cerebral hemorrhage in particular will continue to decrease but the change in death rate from cerebral infarction will remain relatively small. In the period from 1985 to 2000, the death rate from cerebral hemorrhage will decline sharply, and the death rate from cerebral infarction also is expected to decline steadily in every age group. These declines will lead to the decrease in age-adjusted death rates from these cerebrovascular diseases. The average change in the number of the deaths from 1982 to 2000 is minus 3.7% per year for cerebral hemorrhage and plus 0.8% per year for cerebral infarction. The slight increase in deaths from cerebral infarction will be due primarily to an increase in the over 80 year old population. As a result, the proportion of the deaths from cerebral infarction among all types of cerebrovascular diseases will continue to increase in Japan. These future declining trends hopefully can be further modified by improvement in dietary habits and better treatment of high risk groups.