Estimating the Health Effects of Adding Bicycle and Pedestrian Paths at the Census Tract Level: Multiple Model...

Area of Science:

• Urban planning
• Public health
• Transportation science

Background:

• Bicycle and pedestrian paths can improve resident health over time.
• Quantifying the impact of path mileage on specific health outcomes and geographic areas remains a challenge.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate a methodology for predicting health outcome improvements from adding bicycle and pedestrian path mileage.
• To provide actionable insights for city planners and public health officials.

Main Methods:

• Factor analysis of data from American Community Survey, CDC 500 Cities project, and Strava.
• Development of city-specific factor models using path location and usage data.
• Algorithm to predict health outcome improvements based on added path mileage.

Main Results:

• The proposed methodology forecasted health outcome improvements more accurately than alternative approaches in Norfolk, VA, and San Francisco, CA.
• Statistically significant improvements (P<.001) were observed in accuracy compared to alternative methods.
• The model estimated, on average, key health indicators within a small margin of error in both cities.

Conclusions:

• The developed methodology enables decision-makers to assess the health benefits of proposed bicycle and pedestrian paths.
• It helps identify areas where paths may be less effective and quantifies the mileage needed for maximum health improvements.
• The approach demonstrated statistically significant improvements in historical accuracy across diverse urban environments.