An Investigation of Risk Factors Associated with Tuberculosis Transmission in South Africa Using Logistic Regression...

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Tuberculosis Research

Background:

• South Africa faces a high burden of tuberculosis (TB), failing to meet national and international reduction targets.
• TB prevalence was ~690 and incidence ~834 per 100,000 population in 2015.
• Understanding TB risk factors is crucial for effective control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine demographic, socio-economic, and health-related risk factors associated with tuberculosis development in South Africa.
• To identify specific population groups and geographical areas most affected by TB.
• To inform policy development for TB reduction goals.

Main Methods:

• Utilized open-access secondary data from the 2019 South African Health and Demographic Survey.
• Analyzed self-reported household information on TB status.
• Employed bivariate and binary logistic regression analyses to assess factor associations.

Main Results:

• Significant risk factors for TB included age, personal weight, smoking, alcohol consumption, asthma, province of residence, race, and frequent coughing.
• Overweight individuals showed an increased risk of TB transmission.
• Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, Free State, North West, and Gauteng provinces were identified as high-burden areas.

Conclusions:

• Young and older individuals, Black and Coloured ethnic groups, asthmatics, smokers, alcohol consumers, and those who cough frequently are at elevated risk for TB.
• Overweight individuals may contribute to TB transmission.
• Policy interventions must consider these identified risk factors to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3 targets for TB reduction by 2030.