Predictive factors of non-operative management failure in 494 blunt liver injuries: a multicenter retrospective study

Non-operative management (NOM) has become the major treatment of blunt liver trauma (BLT) with a NOM failure rate of 3-15% due to liver-related complications. The aim of the study was to determine the predictive factors and a risk-stratified score of NOM failure. From 2013 to 2021, all patients with BLT in three trauma centers were included; clinical, biological, radiological and outcome data were retrospectively analyzed. Predictive factors and a risk-stratified score associated with NOM failure were identified. Four hundred and ninety-four patients with BLT were included. Among them, 80 (16.2%) had isolated BLT. Fifty-nine patients (11.9%) underwent emergent operative management (OM) on the day of admission and 435 (88.1%) had a NOM. NOM failure rate was 11.5%. Patients with a NOM failure more frequently had a hemoperitoneum (p < 0.001), liver bleeding (p < 0.001), blood transfusion (p < 0.001) and angioembolization (p < 0.001) compared to patient with a successful NOM. In multivariate analysis, the presence of hemoperitoneum (OR = 5.71; 95 CI [1.29-25.45]), angioembolization (OR = 8.73; 95 CI [2.04-38.44] and severe liver injury (AAST IV or V) (OR = 8.97; 95 CI [3.36-23.99]) were independent predictive factors of NOM failure. When these three factors were associated, NOM failure rate was 83.3%. The AAST grade, the presence of hemoperitoneum and the realization of liver angioembolization on the day of admission are three independent predictive factors of NOM failure. Our risk-score based on these three factors stratify the risk of NOM failure in BLT and could be used for a more appropriate level of medical survey adapted to each patient. Level of evidence: prospective observational cohort study, Level III.