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Updated: Aug 30, 2025
Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Development and external validation of a dynamic nomogram to predict the survival for adenosquamous carcinoma of the
Chao Ren1,2, Yifei Ma2, Jiabin Jin3
1Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The Affiliated Jinhua Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua, China.
Objective:
We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the survival and prognosis of adenosquamous carcinoma of the pancreas (ASCP).
Background:
Adenosquamous carcinoma of the pancreas (ASCP) is a relatively rare histological subtype of pancreatic exocrine neoplasms. It was reported a worse survival in ASCP than in pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Prediction of ASCP prognosis is of great importance.
Methods:
Histologically confirmed ASCP patients from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database were finally enrolled and divided into development and internal validation cohorts. Moreover, a multi-center cohort of 70 patients from China was registered as the external validation. A nomogram was developed based on independent predictors of ASCP determined in multivariable analysis.
Results:
A total of 233 patients from SEER were finally included. Univariate and Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and lymph node ratio (LNR) were considered the independent prognostic indicators. We developed a nomogram according to these four parameters. The C index of the nomogram in the development cohort was 0.696. Through analysis of the area under the curve (AUC) of the different cohorts, we observed that the predictive efficacy of the nomogram for 1-, and 2-year overall survival (OS) were better than those of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM (8th) staging system both in the development and validation cohort. External validation confirmed that 1-year survival is 67.2% vs. 29.7%, similar to the internal cohort analysis.
Conclusion:
The nomogram showed good performance in predicting the survival of ASCP. It could help surgeons to make clinical decisions and develop further plans.
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