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Updated: Aug 30, 2025
20:36
Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
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Potential demographic dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: a macro-simulation projection using the spectrum model
Neha Jain1, Srinivas Goli2,3
1Department of Economics, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT), New Delhi, India.
SN Social Sciences
|August 29, 2022
Summary
India can achieve a significant demographic dividend between 2011 and 2041. This demographic bonus, driven by favorable changes and supportive policies, can boost GDP per capita, but requires investment in human capital and employment.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Economics
- Public Policy
Background:
- India's population dynamics present a potential demographic dividend.
- Understanding the conditions for maximizing this dividend is crucial for economic growth.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project India's demographic dividend from 2001 to 2061.
- To identify the optimal period and conditions for reaping demographic benefits.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing simulation modeling software (Spectrum 5.753).
- Integrating demographic and socio-economic changes for projections.
Main Results:
- An effective window of opportunity for demographic dividend exists between 2011 and 2041 (approx. 30 years).
- Favorable demographic changes alone could increase GDP per capita by over 165,000 rupees by 2061.
- The 'demographic-emphasis scenario' shows a 43% higher GDP per capita than the 'demographic as-usual scenario' in 2061.
Conclusions:
- India has a limited-time window to leverage its demographic bonus.
- Realizing the full demographic dividend is contingent upon implementing supportive socio-economic policies.
- Investment in human capital and job creation are essential policy prerequisites.
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