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The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19
Youngran Choi1, Li Zou1, Martin Dresner2
1David B. O'Maley College of Business, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 1 Aerospace Boulevard, Daytona Beach, FL, 32114, USA.
Abstract:
We investigate the impact of air travel mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission by tracing the announced arrival time of COVID-19 and its major variants in countries around the world. We find that air travel intensity to a country, "effective distance" as measured by international air traffic, is generally a significant predictor for the announced viral arrival time. The level of healthcare infrastructure in a country is less important at predicting the initial transmission and detection time of a virus. A policy variable, notably the percentage reduction of total inbound seats in response to a viral outbreak, is largely ineffective at delaying viral transmission and discovery time. These findings suggest that air network connectivity is a major contributor to the speed of viral transmission. However, government attempts to delay viral transmission by reducing air network connectivity after the virus is first discovered are largely ineffective.
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