Characterizing Arrest and Incarceration in a Prospective Cohort of Transgender Women

This study characterized arrest, incarceration, and risk factors for incident incarceration among transgender women (TW) in the northeastern and southern United States. During semiannual study visits over 24 months in a multicenter cohort study, TW completed HIV testing and self-administered surveys. In total, 1571 TW completed baseline survey; 1,312 HIV-negative TW enrolled in the cohort and contributed 2134.3 person-years to the analysis. At baseline, 37% had been arrested and 21% had been incarcerated. Incident incarceration was 23.4 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.9-29.9). Sex work was significantly associated with baseline and incident incarceration (p < .01). A history of incarceration at enrollment was the strongest predictor of incident incarceration (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.99; 95% CI: 3.43-14.24). Living in the South (aOR 2.69, 95% CI: 1.22-5.93), income below the federal poverty level (aOR 2.65 95% CI: 3.43-14.24), and having a recent partner who had been incarcerated (aOR 2.62, 95% CI: 1.20-5.69) also increased the odds of incident incarceration in multivariable modeling. Structural interventions to reduce poverty and decriminalize sex work have the potential to reduce incarceration rates among TW.