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A method for detecting the non-stationarity during high flows under global change
Zhenyu Zhang1, Jinliang Huang2, Paul D Wagner3
1Fujian Key Laboratory of Coastal Pollution Prevention and Control, Xiamen University, 361102 Xiamen, China; Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Kiel University, 24118 Kiel, Germany.
The Science of the Total Environment
|August 29, 2022
Summary
This study introduces a new method to analyze extreme streamflow, distinguishing impacts from climate variability and human activities using non-stationarity theory. Findings reveal human activities dominate short-term streamflow extremes, while climate change influences long-term trends.
Area of Science:
- Hydrology
- Climate Science
- Environmental Management
Background:
- Extreme streamflow events threaten water resource sustainability.
- Existing methods often assume stationarity, limiting their applicability.
- Understanding drivers of streamflow variability is crucial for water management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an innovative method for analyzing extreme streamflow under non-stationary conditions.
- To distinguish the impacts of climate variability and human activities on extreme streamflow.
- To provide insights for effective water resource management.
Main Methods:
- Developed a rainfall-runoff model using long-term hydrological data (>75,000 km² in Southeast China).
- Applied non-stationarity theory to analyze streamflow extremes at various time scales.
- Validated model performance using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), and percent bias (PBIAS).
Main Results:
- The rainfall-runoff model demonstrated acceptable performance (NSE: 0.67-0.77, KGE: 0.57-0.76).
- Streamflow extremes at shorter time scales were more sensitive to environmental changes.
- Human activities were identified as the primary driver of short-term streamflow extremes, while climate change dominated long-term extremes.
Conclusions:
- The proposed non-stationarity-based method effectively distinguishes climate and human impacts on extreme streamflow.
- Water management strategies need to consider the differing influences of human activities and climate change across time scales.
- Findings offer valuable guidance for sustainable water resource management in a changing environment.
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