The Potential Value-Based Price of a Multi-Cancer Early Detection Genomic Blood Test to Complement Current Single...

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Health Economics
• Medical Technology Assessment

Background:

• Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests aim to identify cancers at earlier, more treatable stages.
• Early detection can improve survival outcomes and reduce healthcare costs associated with advanced cancer treatment.
• MCED testing is anticipated to increase overall screening expenditures.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the value-based price of an MCED test for 19 solid cancers in the US.
• To compare the cost-effectiveness of MCED testing plus usual care against usual care alone.
• To assess outcomes from a third-party payer perspective over a lifetime horizon.

Main Methods:

• A hybrid cohort-level state-transition and decision-tree model was employed.
• Annual MCED testing was simulated for individuals aged 50-79.
• Model parameters were derived from literature, including a case-control study for test performance.

Main Results:

• MCED testing led to a 53% reduction in stage IV cancer diagnoses, shifting diagnoses to earlier stages.
• This resulted in longer overall survival and a decrease of $5421 in per-cancer treatment costs.
• The value-based price for MCED was estimated at $1196 per test at a $100,000/QALY threshold, with 0.13 QALYs gained overall.

Conclusions:

• High-specificity MCED tests can enhance long-term health outcomes.
• MCED testing is projected to reduce overall cancer treatment costs.
• A value-based price of $1196 per MCED test is feasible at common willingness-to-pay thresholds.