Analysis of delay in adjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

Adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and surgical resection has been the standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancer. However, there are no evidence-based guidelines regarding the optimal timing of AC for rectal cancer. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of AC timing on overall survival for rectal cancer.

The National Cancer Database (NCDB) from 2004 to 2016 was queried for primary clinical stage II or III rectal cancer patients who had undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by surgery and AC. Patients were grouped based on AC initiation: early ≤ 4 weeks, intermediate 4-8 weeks, and delayed ≥ 8 weeks. The primary outcome was overall survival.

We identified 8722 patients, of which 905 (10.4%) received early AC, 4621 (53.0%) intermediate AC, and 3196 (36.6%) delayed AC. Pathological lymph-node metastasis (ypN +) was positive in 73% of early AC, 74% intermediate AC, and 63% delayed AC (p < 0.05). The 5-year survival probability was 71.1% (95% CI 68-74%) for early AC, 73.2% (95% CI 72-75%) intermediate AC, and 65.8% (95% CI 64-68%) delayed AC (p < 0.001). Using Cox proportional hazard modeling, patients undergoing delayed AC had an associated decreased survival compared to patients receiving early AC (HR 1.18; 95% CI 1.028-1.353, p = 0.018) or intermediate AC (HR 1.28; 95% CI 1.179-1.395, p < 0.01).

Delay in AC administration may be associated with decreased 5-year survival. Compared to early or intermediate AC, patients in the delayed AC group were observed to have increased risk of death, despite having lower proportions with ypN + disease. Patients with higher socioeconomic and education status were more likely to receive early chemotherapy.