Using the Residency Matched Method and Intent to Practice Method to Estimate Primary Care Workforce Production.

Area of Science:

• Medical Education
• Health Workforce Analysis
• Primary Care Physician Training

Background:

• Medical schools often overestimate their primary care physician output using traditional methods.
• Accurate workforce data is crucial for addressing physician shortages.
• Deutchman and colleagues proposed an alternative estimation method.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare the accuracy of the traditional Residency Match Primary Care Method (RMPCM) and Deutchman's Intent to Practice Primary Care Method (IPPCM).
• To determine the actual percentage of University of Kansas School of Medicine (KUSM) graduates practicing primary care.
• To evaluate prediction methods against actual primary care workforce participation.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective study of KUSM graduates from 2003-2014.
• Comparison of RMPCM and IPPCM predicted rates with actual primary care practice.
• Analysis of graduates' career paths after residency and fellowship training.

Main Results:

• RMPCM predicted 48.1% primary care output.
• Deutchman's IPPCM predicted 22.8% primary care output.
• Actual primary care practice rate was 34.2%.

Conclusions:

• Both RMPCM and IPPCM failed to accurately predict KUSM's primary care physician output.
• Existing methods do not reliably measure medical school contributions to the primary care workforce.
• Development of improved prediction models is essential for workforce planning.