Incorporating parameter variability into Monod models of nutrient-limited growth of non-diazotrophic and diazotrophic...

Models are widely used tools in aquatic science to understand the mechanism of phytoplankton growth and anticipate the occurrence of harmful algal blooms. However, model parameterization remains challenging and issues that may introduce prediction uncertainty exist. Many models use the Monod equation to predict cyanobacteria growth rate based on ambient nutrient concentrations. The half-saturation concentrations in the Monod equation varies greatly among different studies and depends on environmental conditions. In this study, we estimated the growth rate due to nutrient limitations for two cyanobacteria species (Microcystis aeruginosa and Dolichospermum flos-aquae) using a modified Monod model which allows the half-saturation concentration to vary according to initial nitrogen (N) conditions. The model is calibrated against observations from laboratory experiment where cyanobacteria growth and ambient nutrient concentrations were measured simultaneously, which is rarely done in the literature. Our results show this modified model produce better predictions on growth rate and biomass, indicating many commonly used mechanistic models may need improvement regarding phytoplankton growth representation. Furthermore, our study quantifies the flexibility in cyanobacteria growth parameter across a wide range of environmental N in eutrophic lakes thus provides important information for large-scale modelling applications.