Learning from the past is not enough to survive present and future bleaching threshold temperatures

In the past decade, the frequency of mass coral bleaching events has increased due to seawater temperature anomalies persisting for longer periods. Coral survival from temperature anomalies has been based on how each species in each location responds to stress, which is unique to individual species and may be due to the way stressful experiences accumulate through time in the form of ecological and physiological memory. A deeper understanding of ecological and physiological memory in corals is necessary to understand their survival strategies into the future. Laboratory experiments can help us simulate seawater temperatures experienced by corals in the past and compare their responses to those of the present and future. In this study, we sampled corals with different life history traits from one location perturbed by seawater temperature incursions (variable site) and from a second, relatively undisturbed location (stable site). We sampled across two seasons to observe the responses to bleaching threshold temperatures in the past (1998-29 °C), present (2018-31 °C), and future (2050-33 °C). Corals were healthy at 29 °C and 31 °C, but a fast-growing, temperature-susceptible coral species experienced high mortality at 33 °C compared to a slow-growing, temperature-resistant coral species. Moreover, corals from the variable site and during the spring season fared better under temperature stress. The results of this study provide insight into the possible role of life-history traits on coral's response to seasons and locations in terms of memory to long-term and short-term thermal anomalies and climate change.