Dynamic winter weather moderates movement and resource selection of wild turkeys at high-latitude range limits

For wide-ranging species in temperate environments, populations at high-latitude range limits are subject to more extreme conditions, colder temperatures, and greater snow accumulation compared with their core range. As climate change progresses, these bounding pressures may become more moderate on average, while extreme weather occurs more frequently. Individuals can mitigate temporarily extreme conditions by changing daily activity budgets and exhibiting plasticity in resource selection, both of which facilitate existence at and expansion of high-latitude range boundaries. However, relatively little work has explored how animals moderate movement and vary resource selection with changing weather, and a general framework for such investigations is lacking. We applied hidden Markov models and step selection functions to GPS data from wintering wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) near their northern range limit to identify how weather influenced transition among discrete movement states, as well as state-specific resource selection. We found that turkeys were more likely to spend time in a stationary state as wind chill temperatures decreased and snow depth increased. Both stationary and roosting turkeys selected conifer forests and avoided land covers associated with foraging, such as agriculture and residential areas, while shifting their strength of selection for these features during poor weather. In contrast, mobile turkeys showed relatively weak resource selection, with less response in selection coefficients during poor weather. Our findings illustrate that behavioral plasticity in response to weather was context dependent, but movement behaviors most associated with poor weather were also those in which resource selection was most plastic. Given our results, the potential for wild turkey range expansion will partly be determined by the availability of habitat that allows them to withstand periodic inclement weather. Combining hidden Markov models with step selection functions is broadly applicable for evaluating plasticity in animal behavior and dynamic resource selection in response to changing weather. We studied turkeys at northern range limits, but this approach is applicable for any system expected to experience significant changes in the coming decade, and may be particularly relevant to populations existing at range peripheries.