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Has COVID-19 intensified the oil price-exchange rate nexus?
Kushal Banik Chowdhury1, Bhavesh Garg2
1Socio-Economic Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, North-East Centre, Tezpur 784501, India.
Abstract:
This paper extends the existing empirical literature by investigating whether the COVID-19 crisis has strengthened the dynamic relationships between oil price and exchange rate. We find significant breaks in the relationships wherein a common break is detected around the COVID-19 outbreak period. Of note, the interactions between the two markets intensified since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, our findings imply that the investors and policymakers are taking stock of the valuable information from the unanticipated occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, diversification in the form of portfolio switches towards foreign currency-denominated assets may be effective in the case of a depreciation of the domestic currency.
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