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Hidden challenges behind ecosystem services improvement claims.

Qing Yang1,2,3, Gengyuan Liu4, Linyu Xu4

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Summary

China's afforestation improved ecosystem services (ES), but challenges exist in dry regions. An attribution analysis reveals human drivers dominate in water-limited areas, necessitating flexible policies for sustainable ecosystem services.

Keywords:
Environmental managementEnvironmental monitoringEnvironmental policyNatural resources

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Research

Background:

  • China's extensive afforestation initiatives have demonstrably improved ecosystem services (ES).
  • However, the sustainability and drivers of these ES improvements, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, require nuanced investigation.
  • Water limitation poses a significant challenge to afforestation's ecological impact.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply an attribution analysis method to disentangle the contributions of natural, human, and cognitive drivers to ES dynamics.
  • To assess the impact of varying precipitation levels on the drivers of ecosystem service changes in China.
  • To provide evidence-based recommendations for ecological policy adjustments.

Main Methods:

  • An attribution analysis framework was employed to quantify the influence of different drivers on ES.
  • Spatial analysis based on precipitation isopleths (400 mm and 800 mm) was used to delineate distinct hydrological regions.
  • Driver ratios (natural vs. human) were calculated for each precipitation zone.

Main Results:

  • North of the 400 mm isohyet, the natural to human driver ratio was 2:7, indicating human influence exceeding natural capacity and potential ecological conflict.
  • Between the 400 mm and 800 mm isohyets, natural drivers had a negative contribution while human drivers accounted for 91%, highlighting fragile conditions and policy needs.
  • South of the 800 mm isohyet, the natural to human driver ratio was 6:3, suggesting current ecological policies are effective and sustainable.

Conclusions:

  • Afforestation's ES benefits are unevenly distributed and challenged by water scarcity in specific regions of China.
  • Human-driven afforestation dominates in water-limited zones, necessitating adaptive and flexible policy interventions.
  • Ecological policies in high-precipitation areas are largely effective and can be maintained, while arid/semi-arid regions require tailored strategies.