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A Novel Prognostic Nomogram and Risk Classification System for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival of Postoperative
Chao Huang1, Zhangheng Huang1, Zongke Zhou1
1Department of Orthopedics, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, No. 37 Guoxue Alley, Wuhou District, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, China.
Background:
Fibrosarcoma (FS) is a typically invasive sarcoma formed by fibroblasts and collagen fibers. Currently, the standard treatment for FS is the surgical resection, but the high recurrence rate and poor prognosis limit the benefits of postoperative patients. Exploring what factors affect the benefit of postoperative patients is significant for guiding the implementation of surgical resection. Therefore, this study aims to construct a novel nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of postoperative fibrosarcoma (POFS) patients.
Methods:
The included patients were randomly assigned to the training and validation sets at a ratio of 7 : 3. CSS was indexed as the research endpoint. Firstly, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used on the training set to determine independent prognostic predictors and build a nomogram for predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS of POFS patients. Secondly, the nomogram's discriminative power and prediction accuracy were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the calibration curve, and a risk classification system for POFS patients was constructed. Finally, the nomogram's clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).
Results:
Our study included 346 POFS patients, divided into the training (244) and validation sets (102). Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that tumor size, SEER stage, and tumor grade were independent prognostic predictors of CSS for POFS patients. They were used to create a nomogram. In the training and validation sets, the ROC curve showed that the 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under the curve (AUC) were higher than 0.700, indicating that the nomogram had good reliability and accuracy. DCA also showed that the nomogram has high application value in clinical practice.
Conclusion:
The larger tumor size, higher tumor grade, and distant metastasis were independently related to the poor prognosis of POFS patients. The nomogram constructed based on the above variables could accurately predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS of POFS patients. So, the nomogram and risk classification system we built might help make accurate judgments in clinical practice, optimize patient treatment decisions, maximize postoperative benefits, and ultimately improve the prognosis of POFS patients.
