Comparing COVID-19 fatality across countries: a synthetic demographic indicator

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Biostatistics

Background:

• The case fatality rate (CFR) is crucial for monitoring COVID-19 progression and evaluating health policies.
• International CFR comparisons are often biased by differing age structures of COVID-19 cases.
• Direct standardization has been the primary method to address these biases in existing studies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose and validate a synthetic indicator of COVID-19 fatality (SCFR).
• To enhance the comparability of COVID-19 fatality rates across countries.
• To adjust for the age and sex structure of COVID-19 cases without relying on a standard population.

Main Methods:

• Development of a novel synthetic indicator for COVID-19 fatality (SCFR).
• Adjustment for both age and sex demographics of COVID-19 cases.
• Validation of the SCFR for international comparative analysis.

Main Results:

• International differences in COVID-19 fatality are less pronounced when using the SCFR compared to crude CFR.
• The age structure adjustment reveals that sex differences are the main driver of international CFR variations.
• Higher case fatality among men significantly influences global COVID-19 CFR disparities.

Conclusions:

• The SCFR offers a simple yet effective tool for monitoring COVID-19 fatality.
• This indicator aids in assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 mutations on fatality rates.
• The SCFR is valuable for evaluating the efficacy of public health interventions, including vaccination campaigns.