Risk factors for new-onset diabetes mellitus following acute pancreatitis: a prospective study

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasingly recognized as a major cause of diabetes, however, the frequency and risk factors associated with new-onset diabetes are not well established. We aimed to assess the frequency and risk factors associated with new-onset diabetes, the time of diabetes occurrence, and the difference between early and late-onset diabetes following an AP episode.

This prospective study included adult patients with AP admitted to a tertiary referral center, followed-up for one year to assess the occurrence of postpancreatitis diabetes. Diabetes was defined in accordance with World Health Organization criteria and the severity of AP was assessed based on the 2012 revised Atlanta classification.

Of 329 patients with AP, 29 (8.8%) were diagnosed with diabetes secondary to AP. Of these, 21 (6.37%) had early-onset diabetes (within one month after the acute episode) whereas 8 (2.42%) had late-onset diabetes (more than one month after the AP episode). Obesity and acute necrosis were more frequent in patients with new-onset diabetes compared to those without (55.2% vs. 33.4%, p=0.040 and 31% vs. 7.7%, p<0.01), and remained statistically significant in multivariate analysis. No statistically significant differences were found between these groups regarding sex, age, etiology and severity of AP. The patients with early-onset diabetes were older than those with late-onset (61 vs. 45 years old), in univariate and multivariate analysis (p=0.018 and p=0.038, OR=0.87).

Less than 10% of patients with AP developed diabetes within 1 year, particularly obese patients and those with acute pancreatic necrosis of more than 50%. Patients aged over 61 years old developed diabetes in the first month after the acute episode of AP.