An evaluation of a computer program to predict the outcome of hyaline membrane disease

A computerized model was developed to predict the severity of hyaline membrane disease. This study compared the program's predictive ability with that of three neonatologists. Blood gas and respiratory support data of 33 infants were entered into the computer which then predicted the severity of disease. The computer predicted 18 outcomes correctly. The neonatologists, provided with the same data, predicted 24 outcomes correctly. Both sets of predictions--computer and physician--found that patients predicted to have mild outcomes had the shortest oxygen requirements, duration of mechanical ventilation, and length of hospitalization, and infants predicted to have severe outcomes had the greatest oxygen requirements, duration of mechanical ventilation, and length of hospitalization. While actual severity was linked to birth weight, the model did not utilize birth weight in its predictive algorithm. Consequently, although the computer program predicted the outcomes with moderate success, it was less accurate than the neonatologists.