Early β-hCG levels predict live birth after single embryo transfer

Area of Science:

• Reproductive Endocrinology
• Clinical Embryology
• Biomarker Discovery

Background:

• Predicting live birth after single embryo transfer (SET) is crucial for patient counseling.
• Current methods for early pregnancy assessment lack specific predictive parameters.
• Serum beta human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) is a key marker in early pregnancy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To define specific serum β-hCG parameters that predict live birth following SET.
• To evaluate the predictive value of β-hCG "doubling" and "reaching 100" for live birth outcomes.
• To provide data aiding in patient counseling regarding pregnancy success after embryo transfer.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective cohort study of 1,028 patients undergoing SET between 2002 and 2019.
• Analysis of two β-hCG parameters: "doubling" over 48 hours and "reaching 100" mIU/mL by 15 days after oocyte retrieval (AOR).
• Logistic regression analysis to determine odds ratios for live birth based on β-hCG parameters, controlling for confounding factors.

Main Results:

• Live birth occurred in 80.7% of cycles with β-hCG doubling and 81.6% with levels reaching 100 mIU/mL by 15 days AOR.
• When both parameters were met, live birth occurred in 85.4% of cycles.
• Significant odds ratios for live birth were observed: 8.0 for doubling, 21.2 for reaching 100, and 12.5 for both parameters met.

Conclusions:

• Serum β-hCG "doubling" and "reaching 100" by 15 days AOR are reliable predictors of live birth.
• These β-hCG parameters can significantly aid in early patient counseling for pregnancy outcomes.
• Early identification of pregnancy viability post-SET can be improved using these defined β-hCG metrics.