Reevaluation of Gastric Cancer Screening by Levin's Equation

This study aimed to reevaluate the effectiveness of fluoroscopy and endoscopy in reducing gastric cancer mortality at the population level.

Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates of gastric cancer and the introduction rates of gastric cancer screening were extracted from the Cancer Registry and Statistics database. The population-attributable risk (PAR) percent of no screening for gastric cancer mortality was calculated using Levin's equation. The PAR of each mortality rate in the no-screening group was estimated as follows: mortality × PAR%. The Jonckheere-Terpstra test for trends and linear regression were performed to compare the PAR of gastric cancer mortality rates among the decades.

The PAR of crude and age-adjusted mortality rates in the no-screening group significantly decreased in the total population ( P for trend <0.001), as well as individually in the male ( P for trend <0.001) and female ( P for trend <0.001) populations. The PAR of the crude mortality rate in the female population significantly decreased in 2000-2009 and 2010-2019, compared with that in 1980-1989. There was no significant difference in the PAR of crude mortality rate in the male population among the decades. The PAR of the age-adjusted mortality rate significantly decreased in 2000-2009 and 2010-2019, compared with that in 1980-1989, in the male and female populations.

PAR% and PAR of no screening for gastric cancer mortality could be estimated using Levin's equation, and the effectiveness of the present gastric cancer screenings with fluoroscopy and endoscopy has been decreasing, especially in the female population.