Is there a Chinese pattern of the second demographic transition?

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• East Asian Studies

Background:

• The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) explains low fertility and diverse family structures in Western nations.
• Its applicability to East Asian societies, particularly China, is not well-established.
• Understanding demographic shifts in China is crucial due to its global significance.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the applicability of the SDT framework to China.
• To analyze key behavioral and ideational indicators of the SDT in the Chinese context.
• To investigate the interplay between cultural factors and demographic changes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Chinese Census and China Family Panel Studies.
• Estimated key behavioral indicators: marriage timing, cohabitation, and nonmarital births.
• Assessed ideational indicators: attitudes toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness.

Main Results:

• China exhibits Western-like trends in union formation, including delayed marriage and premarital cohabitation.
• Despite lowest-low fertility, China has not seen an increase in nonmarital births.
• Growing tolerance for nonmarital childbearing and childlessness is observed, with ideational shifts preceding behavioral ones.

Conclusions:

• The SDT's typical pattern of coincident behavioral changes is not occurring in China.
• Demographic shifts in China follow a distinct pattern influenced by Confucian cultural values.
• Ideational changes regarding family norms are outpacing behavioral adaptations in China.