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Optimal vaccination strategies using a distributed model applied to COVID-19
Georgi Angelov1, Raimund Kovacevic2, Nikolaos I Stilianakis3,4
1Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria.
Central European Journal of Operations Research
|September 15, 2022
Summary
Optimal COVID-19 vaccination strategies prioritize groups with high contact rates to minimize deaths. Random vaccination reduces infections, while elderly prioritization lowers mortality, but targeting high-contact groups is most effective overall.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- Achieving high population immunity through optimal vaccine distribution is crucial for controlling infectious diseases.
- The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for sophisticated epidemiological models to guide vaccination strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a novel distributed optimal control epidemiological model for COVID-19 vaccination.
- To analyze various vaccination scenarios, including random and prioritized approaches, and compare them to an optimal policy.
Main Methods:
- Development of a nonstandard epidemiological model incorporating infected sub-population heterogeneity based on time since infection.
- Application of optimal control theory to determine vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Simulation and comparison of random vaccination, elderly prioritization, and an optimal policy.
Main Results:
- Random vaccination effectively reduces the total number of infected individuals.
- Prioritizing vaccination for the elderly demonstrates a reduction in overall mortality.
- The optimal vaccination strategy identified involves the early prioritization of age groups with the highest contact rates to minimize total deaths.
Conclusions:
- Heterogeneity in the infected population is a critical factor for accurate COVID-19 modeling.
- Vaccination prioritization strategies significantly impact disease dynamics, mortality, and infection rates.
- Targeting high-contact populations early offers the most effective approach to reducing COVID-19 mortality.
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