FMD vaccine allocation and surveillance resourcing options for a potential Australian incursion

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Epidemiology
• Disease Outbreak Modelling
• Economic Analysis of Animal Health

Background:

• Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) poses a significant threat to livestock industries.
• Effective control strategies are crucial for mitigating economic impacts during FMD outbreaks.
• Limited resources necessitate optimized deployment of interventions like vaccination and surveillance.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of targeted vaccination strategies combined with varying surveillance levels for FMD in Victoria, Australia.
• To compare the trade-offs between different control strategies and their associated government response costs.
• To inform decision-making for resource allocation during animal disease emergencies.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS) epidemiological simulation model.
• Incorporated updated state-level data on resource availability and requirements.
• Compared outbreak spread metrics (duration, depopulation numbers) with government response costs.

Main Results:

• Targeting vaccination to intensive production areas or specialized cattle operations showed similar cost and control benefits to vaccinating all species, reducing median duration by 27% and costs by 11%.
• Increased surveillance resources further reduced median outbreak duration by 13% and response costs by 8%.
• Pooling vaccine resources addressed allocation constraints but increased government costs by over 40% and introduced consumer risk.

Conclusions:

• Targeted vaccination and enhanced surveillance are effective strategies for managing FMD outbreaks in intensive livestock regions.
• Increased surveillance improves decision-making for vaccination deployment under time constraints.
• Optimizing resource allocation between vaccination and surveillance is key to minimizing both disease spread and economic impact.