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An Epidemiological Model to Estimate the Prevalence of Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma in the United States
Dai Chihara1, Karissa Johnston2, Talshyn Bolatova2
1Department of Lymphoma and Myeloma, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX.
Background:
Prevalence is reflective of disease incidence and survival, and defined as the number of patients living with active disease. In diseases such as diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) with treatments with curative potential, a proportion of patients are cured, leading to a need for accurate, contemporary estimates of DLBCL prevalence to gauge the impact of the rapidly emerging treatment landscape.
Methods:
Data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) from 2000-2018 were utilized to develop an epidemiological model of incidence, survival, and cure, to estimate the current prevalent DLBCL population requiring active management in the United States (US). A variety of estimates were explored regarding cure rate and timing, based on a companion analysis of MarketScan data for treatment patterns and survival in incident DLBCL patients, and conditional survival analysis of SEER data.
Results:
Across scenarios, with estimated cure ranging from 52.8% and 68.9%, and timing of cure ranging from 1 and 20 years post diagnosis, the estimated prevalence ranged from 63,883 to 142,889. With an assumption of no cure, estimated prevalence was 179,475.
Discussion:
Prevalence estimates of DLBCL varied almost 3-fold, depending on specific cure adjustments made. Further understanding of DLBCL prevalence, for newly diagnosed and relapsed and/or refractory disease, is important to characterize the impact of emerging treatment options and related health care burden.
