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Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing
Tobias S Brett1,2, Pejman Rohani1,2,3,4
1Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
PNAS Nexus
|September 16, 2022
Summary
Containing COVID-19 variants of concern (VOC) at the source is challenging due to delayed risk assessment. Prompt genomic surveillance is key for effective variant identification and containment.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Modeling
- Genomic Surveillance
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has been complicated by the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOC).
- Minimizing the impact of VOCs requires effective containment strategies, particularly at the source.
- Global interconnectedness poses challenges to controlling the geographic spread of infectious diseases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the feasibility of containing variants of concern (VOC) at their source.
- To identify optimal monitoring requirements for effective VOC containment.
- To evaluate the role of epidemiological indicators versus genomic surveillance in VOC control.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of a stochastic transmission model for COVID-19.
- Simulation of variant emergence and spread scenarios.
- Assessment of different monitoring and surveillance strategies.
Main Results:
- Precise risk assessment using epidemiological indicators is often too late for source containment of VOCs.
- Containment decisions must frequently be made without confident severity estimates.
- Genomic surveillance offers a realistic approach for identifying and containing variants if data processing is rapid.
Conclusions:
- Effective containment of COVID-19 variants of concern at the source is difficult using traditional epidemiological data alone.
- Prompt and efficient genomic surveillance is crucial for early detection and control of emerging variants.
- Decision-making for containment requires adaptability to uncertainty regarding variant severity.
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