Non-linear effects of heterogeneous environmental regulations on industrial relocation: Do compliance costs work?

Reasonably designing environmental regulations for compliance-driven industrial relocation can avoid new pollution havens. The Cournot duopoly model simulates that the necessary condition for industrial relocation is differentiated market costs. Then, based on the province-industrial data of six Chinese pollution-intensive industries during 2005-2019, this study applies spatial Durbin model to explore the non-linear effects of heterogeneous environmental regulations on industrial relocation. Results shown that command-and-control environmental regulation manifests a U-shaped curve with local industrial relocation, with inverted U-shaped spillover effect radiating a road distance of 650 km, and both internal and external costs play the mediating roles; Market incentive environmental regulation has inverted U-shaped curves with industrial relocation in local and neighboring regions, it creates dual costs and works well in both short and long terms, which is the most potential regulatory tool to avoid pollution relocation accompanying industrial relocation; Voluntary environmental regulation exhibits inverted U-shaped relationships with industrial relocation in direct and spillover effects, and works through increased external cost rather than internal cost. Its spatial spillover radiates the longest 1250 km due to rapid spread of public opinions, but this effect takes more than 3 years to be effective.