A probabilistic approach to model bisphenol A (BPA) migration from packaging to meat products

Bisphenol A (BPA), a synthetic chemical which has raised concerns due to its potential toxicological effects on humans, has been widely detected in canned and non-canned meat and meat products. This study estimated BPA migration from packaging to non-canned and canned meat products by developing two probabilistic models. BPA concentration data in packaging materials were collated, including polyethylene terephthalate, polyvinyl chloride, epoxy-based coatings, and polyester-based coatings. Migration ratios were calculated from migration tests of BPA molecules moving from packaging to food simulants. The predictive model revealed that the BPA migration concentration from packaging ranges from 0.017 to 0.13 (5th-95th percentile) μg kg^-1 with a simulated mean of 0.056 μg kg^-1 in non-canned meat products. This is in stark contrast to the simulated mean of 134.57 (5th-95th percentile: 59.17-223.25) μg kg^-1 for canned meat products. Nevertheless, plastic packaging was estimated to contribute only 3 % of BPA levels in non-canned meat products. The sensitivity analysis showed that the contact area of meat products with films is the most sensitive parameter of the plastic packaging migration model. It is concluded that plastic packaging may not be the only or dominant source of BPA in non-canned meat products.