Warming reverses directionality in the richness-abundance relationship in ephemeral Mediterranean plant communities

Recent findings in forests worldwide have demonstrated how directionality in the richness-abundance causality shifts along global climate gradients: The so-called more-species hypothesis (richness determines abundance) prevails in Earth's most productive climates, whereas the opposite, the so-called more-individuals hypothesis (abundance determines richness), is more likely to prevail in climatically harsh conditions. Since temporal variability is the norm, a critical question is whether this directionality shift is also a function of temporal climatic fluctuations locally. Here, we analyze whether directionality in the richness-abundance relationship is contingent on temporal variability over 10 annual consecutive realizations in ephemeral plant assemblages. Our results support the idea that the more-species hypothesis prevailed in the most benign years, whereas the more-individuals hypothesis did so during less productive years, which were significantly linked to the warmest years. These results support the idea that rising temperatures can reverse directionality in the richness-abundance relationship in these annual plant communities, and therefore, climate warming can have a significant effect on the relationship between diversity and ecosystem functions, such as productivity, by altering the prevalence of primary mechanisms involved in species assembly.