Forecasted 2040 global prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease using hierarchical bayesian approach

Due to increases in obesity and type 2 diabetes, the prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has also been increasing. Current forecast models may not include non-obese NAFLD. Here, we used the Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through the year 2040.

Prevalence data from 245 articles involving 2,699,627 persons were used with a hierarchical Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through 2040. Subgroup analyses were performed for age, gender, presence of metabolic syndrome, region, and smoking status. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for clinical setting and study quality.

The forecasted 2040 prevalence was 55.7%, a three-fold increase since 1990 and a 43.2% increase from the 2020 prevalence of 38.9%. The estimated average yearly increase since 2020 was 2.16%. For those aged <50 years and ≥50 years, the 2040 prevalence were not significantly different (56.7% vs. 61.5%, P=0.52). There was a significant difference in 2040 prevalence by sex (males: 60% vs. 50%) but the trend was steeper for females (annual percentage change: 2.5% vs. 1.5%, P=0.025). There was no difference in trends overtime by region (P=0.48). The increase rate was significantly higher in those without metabolic syndrome (3.8% vs. 0.84%, P=0.003) and smokers (1.4% vs. 1.1%, P=0.011). There was no difference by clinical/community setting (P=0.491) or study quality (P=0.85).

By 2040, over half the adult population is forecasted to have NAFLD. The largest increases are expected to occur in women, smokers, and those without metabolic syndrome. Intensified efforts are needed to raise awareness of NAFLD and to determine long-term solutions addressing the driving factors of the disease.