Nomogram for predicting traumatic subdural effusion after mild traumatic brain injury

Area of Science:

• Neuroscience
• Trauma Surgery
• Medical Informatics

Background:

• Traumatic subdural effusion (TSE) is a frequent complication following traumatic brain injury (TBI).
• Predicting TSE risk in mild TBI cases is crucial for timely intervention.
• Identifying specific risk factors can improve patient outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify independent risk factors for TSE in patients with mild TBI.
• To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for TSE incidence.
• To enhance clinical decision-making for mild TBI management.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 120 mild TBI patients (January 2015 - December 2020).
• Univariate and multivariable logistic regression to identify risk factors.
• Nomogram construction and validation using ROC curves and calibration plots.

Main Results:

• 32 out of 120 patients developed TSE.
• Independent risk factors identified: gender, age, hypertension history, and basilar skull fracture.
• The developed nomogram demonstrated good predictive performance (C-index: 0.78, AUC: 0.78).

Conclusions:

• Gender, age, hypertension history, and basilar skull fracture are significant predictors of TSE post-mild TBI.
• The nomogram provides a reliable tool for predicting TSE risk.
• This predictive model can aid clinicians in managing mild TBI patients.