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Future global concurrent droughts and their effects on maize yield.

Dineshkumar Muthuvel1, Bellie Sivakumar1, Amai Mahesha2

  • 1Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400076, India.

The Science of the Total Environment
|September 20, 2022
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Summary

Concurrent droughts, combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural impacts, pose significant risks to global food security and maize yield. This study quantifies these risks under climate change, identifying vulnerable regions and projecting future impacts on crop production.

Keywords:
CMIP6Climate changeCompound droughtCopulaMultivariate standardized drought index

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Agricultural Science
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Droughts, encompassing meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural forms, can occur concurrently, posing severe threats to global food security and crop yields.
  • Understanding the traits and impacts of these concurrent droughts under climate change is crucial for effective mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess global concurrent drought characteristics and their influence on maize yield under projected climate change scenarios.
  • To identify regions most vulnerable to concurrent droughts and quantify their future impacts on maize production.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) derived from precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture data using copula functions to quantify concurrent droughts.
  • Employed run theory on a 1950-2100 time series of MSDI values to compute drought duration, severity, areal coverage, and intensity.
  • Applied ensemble data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) under a high emission scenario (CMIP6) and XGBoost algorithms for projecting drought-crop yield dynamics.

Main Results:

  • Identified Central America, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, and the Amazon basin as highly vulnerable regions in the late 21st century.
  • Projected significant conditional concurrent drought probabilities (up to 84% in France) affecting maize yield in the far future.
  • Demonstrated the substantial impact of concurrent droughts on maize yield, with probabilities of yield loss increasing under future climate conditions.

Conclusions:

  • Concurrent droughts present a substantial and growing threat to global maize production and food security, particularly in vulnerable regions.
  • The study's methodology combining statistical and soft-computing techniques offers a valuable framework for drought impact assessment and mitigation planning.
  • Proactive measures informed by these projections are essential to adapt agricultural practices and enhance resilience to future drought events.