Psychiatric interviews and psychological tests as predictors of medical students' success

Psychiatric interviews carried out during the first year of four medical school classes of the University of Chicago School of Medicine (now Pritzker School of Medicine) during 1946 through 1949 were found to be statistically significant in predicting the students' graduation. However, the number of "false negatives" was high; that is, a large number of students predicted not to graduate did graduate. Psychological tests--consisting of personality, interest, and intelligence tests--were not statistically significant in predicting graduation. Neither the interviews nor the tests correctly predicted the students' mental or physical health or their occupational or marital adjustment as of 1982, as measured by replies to a questionnaire from more than 90 percent of the students in the original study who could be located. There is some subjective evidence that moderate degrees of anxiety, immaturity, and compulsivity are not associated with failure to complete medical school but that passivity, withdrawal, and weak motivation are. Although psychiatric interviewing of applicants is not now feasible because of legal restrictions, some of the findings of the study reported here may be useful for admission interviewers and as a basis for further research.