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Updated: Aug 28, 2025

Application of I TASSER, trRosetta, UCSF Chimera, HADDOCK server, and HEX loria for De Novo and In Silico Design of Proteins
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State-controlled epidemic in a game against a novel pathogen.

József Garay1,2, Ádám Kun3,4, Zoltán Varga5

  • 1Institute of Evolution, Centre for Ecological Research, Konkoly-Thege M. út 29-33, Budapest, 1121, Hungary.

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Game theory can model pathogen evolution and societal impact. Contrary to intuition, states should not over-expand healthcare capacity, but focus on optimal intervention strategies to manage pandemics effectively.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Game Theory
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • Pathogen evolution significantly impacts human societies, necessitating preparedness for novel diseases.
  • Effective state response requires analyzing potential scenarios and optimizing interventions.
  • Game theory provides a framework for modeling state-pathogen interactions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a game-theoretical model for optimizing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against novel pathogens.
  • To determine optimal lockdown strategies and healthcare capacity management.
  • To identify key factors influencing pandemic emergence and severity.

Main Methods:

  • A game-theoretical framework was employed, with the state playing against a pathogen.
  • Incorporated activity and economic sector-dependent transmission rates.
  • Calculated optimal control of lockdowns and healthcare capacity.

Main Results:

  • The pre-symptomatic infectious stage significantly affects pandemic probability.
  • Contrary to intuition, expanding healthcare capacity is not always optimal.
  • Optimal strategies balance socio-political goals with minimizing social restriction costs.

Conclusions:

  • States can prepare for pandemics by analyzing scenarios using game theory.
  • Optimal pandemic management involves carefully calculated NPIs and healthcare capacity.
  • Effective pandemic preparedness requires nuanced strategies beyond simple capacity expansion.