State-controlled epidemic in a game against a novel pathogen

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Game Theory
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• Pathogen evolution significantly impacts human societies, necessitating preparedness for novel diseases.
• Effective state response requires analyzing potential scenarios and optimizing interventions.
• Game theory provides a framework for modeling state-pathogen interactions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a game-theoretical model for optimizing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against novel pathogens.
• To determine optimal lockdown strategies and healthcare capacity management.
• To identify key factors influencing pandemic emergence and severity.

Main Methods:

• A game-theoretical framework was employed, with the state playing against a pathogen.
• Incorporated activity and economic sector-dependent transmission rates.
• Calculated optimal control of lockdowns and healthcare capacity.

Main Results:

• The pre-symptomatic infectious stage significantly affects pandemic probability.
• Contrary to intuition, expanding healthcare capacity is not always optimal.
• Optimal strategies balance socio-political goals with minimizing social restriction costs.

Conclusions:

• States can prepare for pandemics by analyzing scenarios using game theory.
• Optimal pandemic management involves carefully calculated NPIs and healthcare capacity.
• Effective pandemic preparedness requires nuanced strategies beyond simple capacity expansion.