Can national forest city construction mitigate air pollution in China? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

As air pollution in Chinese cities becomes a growing concern, measures to alleviate air pollution have attracted the attention of all sectors of society. By using the data for 283 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2016, we utilized the quasi-natural experiment of the national forest city construction (NFCC) and employed the difference-in-differences approach to examine the effects of NFCC on air pollution. The results show that the NFCC led to a 12.14% and 4.29% reduction in PM_2.5 concentrations and SO₂ emissions, respectively. A series of robustness tests such as instrumental variable estimates, placebo tests, and eliminating disturbing policies all supported these findings. In addition, we provided evidence that the environment benefits of the NFCC could be explained by increasing green spaces, strengthening environmental regulations, and forming green development models. Furthermore, the results from heterogeneity analysis indicate that the NFCC was more effective in smaller cities, southern cities, and western cities. Our findings are of significance to Chinese cities on the road to sustainable development and provide some insights for other developing countries and emerging markets to control air pollution.