Risk factors and diagnostic prediction models for papillary thyroid carcinoma

Thyroid nodules (TNs) represent a common scenario. More accurate pre-operative diagnosis of malignancy has become an overriding concern. This study incorporated demographic, serological, ultrasound, and biopsy data and aimed to compare a new diagnostic prediction model based on Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) with multivariate logistic regression model, to guide the decision of surgery. Records of 2,090 patients with TNs who underwent thyroid surgery were retrospectively reviewed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that Bethesda category (OR=1.90, P<0.001), TIRADS (OR=2.55, P<0.001), age (OR=0.97, P=0.002), nodule size (OR=0.53, P<0.001), and serum levels of Tg (OR=0.994, P=0.004) and HDL-C (OR=0.23, P=0.001) were statistically significant independent differentiators for patients with PTC and benign nodules. Both BPNN and regression models showed good accuracy in differentiating PTC from benign nodules (area under the curve [AUC], 0.948 and 0.924, respectively). Notably, the BPNN model showed a higher specificity (88.3% vs. 73.9%) and negative predictive value (83.7% vs. 45.8%) than the regression model, while the sensitivity (93.1% vs. 93.9%) was similar between two models. Stratified analysis based on Bethesda indeterminate cytology categories showed similar findings. Therefore, BPNN and regression models based on a combination of demographic, serological, ultrasound, and biopsy data, all of which were readily available in routine clinical practice, might help guide the decision of surgery for TNs.