Identification of key somatic oncogenic mutation based on a confounder-free causal inference model

Abnormal cell proliferation and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) are the essential events that induce cancer initiation and progression. A fundamental goal in cancer research is to develop an efficient method to detect mutational genes capable of driving cancer. Although several computational methods have been proposed to identify these key mutations, many of them focus on the association between genetic mutations and functional changes in relevant biological processes, but not their real causality. Causal effect inference provides a way to estimate the real induce effect of a certain mutation on vital biological processes of cancer initiation and progression, through addressing the confounder bias due to neutral mutations and unobserved latent variables. In this study, integrating genomic and transcriptomic data, we construct a novel causal inference model based on a deep variational autoencoder to identify key oncogenic somatic mutations. Applied to 10 cancer types, our method quantifies the causal effect of genetic mutations on cell proliferation and EMT by reducing both observed and unobserved confounding biases. The experimental results indicate that genes with higher mutation frequency do not necessarily mean they are more potent in inducing cancer and promoting cancer development. Moreover, our study fills a gap in the use of machine learning for causal inference to identify oncogenic mutations.