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Decoding the Geography of Natural TBEV Microfoci in Germany: A Geostatistical Approach Based on Land-Use Patterns and
Johannes P Borde1,2, Rüdiger Glaser3, Klaus Braun3
1Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine II, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg Medical Center, D-79106 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany.
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
|September 23, 2022
Summary
Environmental factors like evapotranspiration and hot days are key indicators for Tick-Borne Encephalitis virus (TBEV) microfoci in Germany. This study maps TBEV risk areas to guide targeted prevention strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Geostatistics
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a serious neurological disease transmitted by ticks.
- Identifying environmental patterns of TBE virus (TBEV) microfoci is crucial for understanding disease spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze uniform environmental patterns of identified TBEV microfoci in Germany.
- To create a high-resolution probability map for TBEV presence using a geostatistical model.
Main Methods:
- Compared environmental variables of 56 TBEV microfoci with 3575 control points using Fisher's Exact Test.
- Employed a MaxEnt distribution model with selected variables to generate a high-resolution TBEV probability map for Germany.
Main Results:
- Multi-annual actual evapotranspiration (27.0%) and hot days (22.5%) were the most significant predictors.
- Land cover, minimum air temperature, sunshine duration, and forest proximity also contributed to the model.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a high-resolution map of TBEV microfoci in Germany based on confirmed infections.
- Evapotranspiration and hot days are primary environmental drivers of TBEV distribution.
- Findings can inform targeted regional preventive measures and surveillance efforts.
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