Incubation period of AIDS in patients infected via blood transfusion

Temporal trends in the prevalence of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infection are uncertain because of the reluctance of most governments to embark on large-scale programmes of serological surveillance. In the absence of such data, attempts have been made to relate the number of reported cases of AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) in a defined population to the proportion of that population infected with the virus as a specified time point. One crucial determinant of this relationship is the probability distribution of the incubation period of the disease, with the period defined as the time interval from infection to diagnosis. Recent statistical analysis suggests a mean incubation period of 4.5 years with wide confidence limits, whereas a more heuristic study reports a mean of 15 years. Here we report on a new analysis which reveals age-related differences in the mean (and median) incubation period: 1.97 (1.90) years for children (0-4 yrs old at infection), 8.23 (7.97) years for adults (5-59 yrs old), 5.50 (5.44) years for elderly patients (60 yrs and older).