Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Mathematical modelling of Wolbachia replacement in Aedes aegypti for dengue control: a scoping review.

Proceedings. Biological sciences·2026
Same author

Implementing the Chinese mandatory antimicrobial stewardship program: barriers to continuous improvement.

Health policy and planning·2025
Same author

Costs-effectiveness and cost components of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions affecting antibiotic resistance outcomes in hospital patients: a systematic literature review.

BMJ global health·2024
Same author

The impact of inpatient bloodstream infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PLoS medicine·2023
Same author

Knowledge, Attitudes and Perception of Mosquito Control in Different Citizenship Regimes within and Surrounding the Malakasa Open Accommodation Refugee Camp in Athens, Greece.

International journal of environmental research and public health·2022
Same author

Japanese Encephalitis Emergence in Australia: The Potential Population at Risk.

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·2022

Related Experiment Video

Updated: Aug 27, 2025

Vector Competence Analyses on Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes using Zika Virus
10:35

Vector Competence Analyses on Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes using Zika Virus

Published on: May 31, 2020

3.1K

Predictable Chikungunya Infection Dynamics in Brazil.

Laith Yakob1

  • 1Department of Disease Control, Faculty of Infectious & Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK.

Viruses
|September 23, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission in Brazil is now more predictable, shifting from explosive outbreaks to a consistent pattern. This predictability allows for better targeting of control strategies and intervention trials.

Keywords:
Aedesarbovirusepidemiologyinterventiontransmission

More Related Videos

Multiplexed Isothermal Amplification Based Diagnostic Platform to Detect Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue 1
06:18

Multiplexed Isothermal Amplification Based Diagnostic Platform to Detect Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue 1

Published on: March 13, 2018

14.4K
Zika Virus Infectious Cell Culture System and the In Vitro Prophylactic Effect of Interferons
09:11

Zika Virus Infectious Cell Culture System and the In Vitro Prophylactic Effect of Interferons

Published on: August 23, 2016

20.9K

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Aug 27, 2025

Vector Competence Analyses on Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes using Zika Virus
10:35

Vector Competence Analyses on Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes using Zika Virus

Published on: May 31, 2020

3.1K
Multiplexed Isothermal Amplification Based Diagnostic Platform to Detect Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue 1
06:18

Multiplexed Isothermal Amplification Based Diagnostic Platform to Detect Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue 1

Published on: March 13, 2018

14.4K
Zika Virus Infectious Cell Culture System and the In Vitro Prophylactic Effect of Interferons
09:11

Zika Virus Infectious Cell Culture System and the In Vitro Prophylactic Effect of Interferons

Published on: August 23, 2016

20.9K

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Public health

Background:

  • Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in the Caribbean in 2013 and has since spread throughout the Americas, with Brazil becoming a central hub for transmission.
  • Millions have been infected across the region, necessitating a deeper understanding of transmission dynamics for effective control.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test the hypothesis that CHIKV transmission in Brazil has evolved from sporadic, explosive patterns to a more predictable state.
  • To identify regions and time periods with consistent inter-annual transmission rates.
  • To forecast future CHIKV case notifications and assess the potential for improved public health interventions.

Main Methods:

  • Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were developed and validated using Brazilian Ministry of Health data.
  • Consistency-weighted, population-standardized kernel density estimates identified municipalities with consistent transmission.
  • Moran's I was used to assess spatial clustering of CHIKV cases from 2017 to 2021.

Main Results:

  • SARIMA models accurately predicted CHIKV case notifications for 2022-2023, forecasting over 100,000 confirmed cases.
  • Model forecasts for early 2022 showed high accuracy when compared to ECDC reports.
  • Consistent transmission hotspots were identified in the North, Northeast, and Southeast regions of Brazil, with spatial clustering peaking in late summer/early autumn.

Conclusions:

  • CHIKV transmission in Brazil has transitioned to a more predictable pattern, enabling enhanced control strategies.
  • The findings support improved targeting of interventions and site selection for clinical trials.
  • Predictive modeling is crucial for managing ongoing CHIKV transmission in Brazil and potentially other affected regions.