Global Burden of Disease from Major Air Pollution Sources (GBD MAPS): A Global Approach

Ambient fine particulate matter (particles <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter [PM_2.5]) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM_2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. The Global Burden of Disease from Major Air Pollution Sources (GBD MAPS) project provides a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of contributions to the ambient PM_2.5 disease burden from source sectors and fuels across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 subnational areas. We first derived quantitative contributions from 24 emission sensitivity simulations using an updated global atmospheric chemistry-transport model, input with a newly developed detailed anthropogenic emissions dataset that includes emissions specific to source sector and fuels. These simulation results were integrated with newly available high-resolution satellite-derived PM_2.5 exposure estimates and disease-specific concentration-response relationships consistent with the GBD project to quantify contributions of specific source sector and fuel to the ambient PM_2.5 disease burden across all regions, countries, and subnational areas. To improve the transparency and reproducibility of this and future work, we publicly provided the global atmospheric chemistry-transport model source code, emissions dataset and emissions model source code, analysis scripts, and source sensitivity results, and further described the emissions dataset and source contribution results in two publications.

We found that nearly 1.05 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.74-1.36 million) deaths worldwide (27.3% of the total mortality attributable to PM_2.5) would be avoidable by eliminating fossil fuel combustion, with coal contributing over half of that burden. Residential (19.2%; 736,000 deaths [95% UI: 521,000-955,000]), industrial (11.7%; 448,000 deaths [95% UI: 318,000-582,000]), and energy (10.2%; 391,000 deaths [95% UI: 277,000-507,000]) sector emissions are among the dominant global sources Uncertainty in these estimates reflects those of the input datasets. Regions with the largest anthropogenic contributions generally have the highest numbers of attributable deaths, which clearly demonstrates the importance of reducing these emissions to realize reductions in global air pollution and its disease burden.