Research and application of a new multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for cold stress in dairy cows

Effective and comprehensive evaluation of cold stress is critical for healthy dairy cow breeding in the winter. Previous studies on dairy cow cold stress have considered thermal environmental factors but not physiological factors or air quality. Therefore, this study aimed to propose a multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method for cold stress in dairy cows based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a genetic algorithm (GA). First, the AHP was used to construct an evaluation index system for cold stress in dairy cows from 3 dimensions: thermal environment (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and illumination), physiological factors (respiratory rate, body surface temperature), and air quality [NH₃, CO₂, inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀)]. Second, the consistency test of the judgment matrix was transformed into a nonlinear constrained optimization problem and solved using the GA. Next, based on fuzzy set theory, the comment set and membership function were established to classify the degree of cold stress into 5 levels: none, mild, moderate, high, and extreme. Then, the degree of cold stress in cows was obtained using multilevel fuzzy comprehensive judgment. To investigate the effect of illumination indicators on cold stress in dairy cows, 24 prelactation cows from the south and north sides were selected for a 117-d comprehensive cold stress evaluation. The results showed that the mean mild cold stress durations were 605.3 h (25.22 d) and 725.5 h (30.23 d) and the moderate cold stress durations were 67.2 h (2.8 d) and 96 h (4.0 d) on the south and north sides, respectively. Simultaneously, generalized linear mixed model showed that there were significant correlations between the daily cold stress duration and milk yield, feeding time, lying time, and active steps in the cows on both sides. This method can reasonably indicate cow cold stress conditions and better guide cold protection practices in actual production.