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How Well Do Emission Factors Approximate Emission Changes from Electricity System Models?

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  • 1Rochester Institute of Technology, Golisano Institute for Sustainability, 190 Lomb Memorial Drive, Rochester, New York 14623, United States.

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|September 26, 2022
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Summary

Researchers tested methods for estimating carbon emissions from new grid technologies. Incremental and thermal marginal factors accurately estimated emissions in a power grid model, unlike average or demand-based factors.

Keywords:
dispatch modelelectricity system modelemission estimatemacro-energy systemsmarginal emission factor

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Energy Systems Engineering
  • Computational Science

Background:

  • Estimating carbon emissions from new grid technologies (e.g., electric vehicles, solar panels) is crucial for climate policy.
  • Existing marginal and average emission factors yield varied results, complicating method selection.
  • Accurate assessment of these factors' performance in real-world grids is challenging due to measurement difficulties.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the accuracy of different emission factor calculation methods in approximating actual power grid emission changes.
  • To compare the performance of marginal and average emission factors under various conditions.

Main Methods:

  • Developed and tested multiple forms of marginal and average emission factors.
  • Utilized an electricity system dispatch model as a controlled environment for simulating grid operations.
  • Compared emission factor estimates against the model's simulated emission changes.

Main Results:

  • Average emission factors showed lower accuracy for demand shift emissions.
  • Demand-based marginal emission factors also exhibited lower accuracy at hourly resolutions.
  • Incremental and thermal marginal emission factors demonstrated high accuracy in reproducing grid emission changes across scenarios.
  • Annual time averages provided similar accuracy to finer resolutions for most factors, except demand-based.

Conclusions:

  • Incremental and thermal marginal emission factors are more reliable for estimating grid emission changes.
  • Average and demand-based marginal factors require careful application, especially for demand-driven changes.
  • Annual averages can be a practical alternative for certain emission factor types, simplifying analysis.