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A Bayesian-loss function-based method in assessing loss caused by ship-source oil spills in the arctic area
Mawuli Afenyo1,2, Changmin Jiang3,2, Adolf K Y Ng4,5,6,2
1Department of Maritime Business Administration, Texas A&M University, Galveston, Texas, USA.
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|September 26, 2022
Summary
Assessing Arctic oil spill risk for insurance is challenging. A new hybrid Bayesian-loss function method accurately estimates losses, enabling reliable insurance premiums for safer Arctic shipping.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Risk Management
- Maritime Studies
Background:
- Assessing ship-source oil spill risks in the Arctic for insurance is hampered by data scarcity and uncertainties.
- Growing maritime traffic in the Arctic necessitates advanced methods for estimating potential oil spill losses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an innovative method for assessing ship-source oil spill-related loss in the Arctic.
- To provide a reliable loss estimation mechanism for Arctic shipping insurance and risk management.
Main Methods:
- A hybrid Bayesian-loss function-based approach was developed.
- The method was tested using an illustrative case study on Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada.
Main Results:
- The developed method accurately assesses potential losses from ship-source oil spills.
- The approach facilitates the creation of reliable insurance premiums for Arctic shipping activities.
Conclusions:
- The hybrid method offers a dependable tool for loss estimation for governmental and non-governmental organizations.
- This approach contributes to designing enhanced safety measures and resilience for Arctic shipping.
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